The changing pattern of mortality in England and Wales. I. Infant mortality.
نویسنده
چکیده
Such anticipation itself implies extrapolation; and no judgments which involve extrapolation can be final. They will be intelligent only in so far as they state foreseeable consequences within limits circumscribed by certain assumptions about the continued predominant influence of agencies operative at the present time and in the immediate past. While recognizing the dangers and limitations ofsuch extrapolation, we need not lose sight of the fact that the future is in large measure predetermined by the past. Thus we can assign with no reservation an upper limit to the number of persons over 40 years of age in 1990 because all of them will be persons whose birth has been recorded already. With the reservation that mortality experience will not deteriorate as the result of a world war, mass unemployment, or other circumstance, we can also assign a lower limit. Such reservations will be less or more weighty in the measure that we do or do not extrapolate too far ahead of what current experience seemingly endorses. To clarify the prospect as a basis for planning in the decade ahead, it is necessary to interpret current morbidity rates and their trends against the background of what we can now confidently forecast about the future age composition of the population. For the second, official sources are available. For the former it will be necessary to make an ad hoc study by recourse to data not as yet on record for a closed and representative population at risk. Such
منابع مشابه
Spatial Distribution of Premature Infant Mortality in 2000-2017
Background The provision, maintenance and promotion of the health of infants as a vulnerable group in health care services are a high priority, and the first step in reducing infant mortality and improving their health is undoubtedly the identification of their mortality status. We aimed to study the spatial distribution of premature infant mortality in 194 count...
متن کاملComparison of birthweight and infant mortality between Singapore and England and Wales, 1980.
For 1980 Singapore was found to have overall a more favourable birthweight distribution than England and Wales. The proportion of very low birthweight babies (less than 1500 g) and heavy babies (3500 g and over) was 0.4% and 18.5% in Singapore and 0.7% and 34.9% in England and Wales for live births, and 0.6% and 18.5% against 0.9% and 34.7% for total births. However, for low birthweight (less t...
متن کاملSocial class differences in infant mortality in Sweden: comparison with England and Wales.
OBJECTIVES To investigate social class differences in infant mortality in Sweden in the mid-1980s and to compare their magnitude with that of those found in England and Wales. DESIGN Analysis of risk of infant death by social class in aggregated routine data for the mid-1980s, which included the linkage of Swedish births to the 1985 census. SETTING Sweden and England and Wales. SUBJECTS A...
متن کاملChanging pattern of mortality in England and Wales. III. Mortality in old age; (a) picture disclosed by annual specific rates.
The crude death rate for females fell from 13 * 7 in 1911 to 116 in 1931. The Life Table death rate, i.e. the death rate duly standardized with reference to the changing age structure of the population fell from 18* 1 to 15 9 in the same period. Meanwhile the infant mortality rate had also fallen from 109 in 1911-15 to 62 in the quinquennium 1931-5; but no such decline took place in deaths asso...
متن کاملEngland and Wales
Analysis ofthe births that occurred in England and Wales during 1970-6 showed that they followed a seven-day cycle, being concentrated from Tuesdays to Fridays and least numerous on Sundays. This pattern became increasingly pronounced during the period examined. Relatively few births occurred on bank holidays, especially Christmas Day and Boxing Day. In general perinatal mortality was higher am...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
- British journal of preventive & social medicine
دوره 8 1 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 1954