The changing pattern of mortality in England and Wales. I. Infant mortality.

نویسنده

  • W TAYLOR
چکیده

Such anticipation itself implies extrapolation; and no judgments which involve extrapolation can be final. They will be intelligent only in so far as they state foreseeable consequences within limits circumscribed by certain assumptions about the continued predominant influence of agencies operative at the present time and in the immediate past. While recognizing the dangers and limitations ofsuch extrapolation, we need not lose sight of the fact that the future is in large measure predetermined by the past. Thus we can assign with no reservation an upper limit to the number of persons over 40 years of age in 1990 because all of them will be persons whose birth has been recorded already. With the reservation that mortality experience will not deteriorate as the result of a world war, mass unemployment, or other circumstance, we can also assign a lower limit. Such reservations will be less or more weighty in the measure that we do or do not extrapolate too far ahead of what current experience seemingly endorses. To clarify the prospect as a basis for planning in the decade ahead, it is necessary to interpret current morbidity rates and their trends against the background of what we can now confidently forecast about the future age composition of the population. For the second, official sources are available. For the former it will be necessary to make an ad hoc study by recourse to data not as yet on record for a closed and representative population at risk. Such

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عنوان ژورنال:
  • British journal of preventive & social medicine

دوره 8 1  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 1954